If elections are held today, BJP will not get a majority: Survey

The survey showed a significant increase in the Congress-led UPA alliance’s vote share even as the seat share remains feeble

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won the 2014 Lok Sabha elections with an overwhelming majority. However, India Today and Karvy Insights Mood of the Nation(MOTN) Survey shows that if elections were held today, it would not reach the magic number.

The survey still shows Prime Minister Narendra Modi as people’s favourable choice for the prime ministerial candidate with 49 percent respondents willing to vote for him, while Congress President Rahul Gandhi is favoured by 27 percent.

The Congress-led UPA alliance’s vote share has increased significantly even if the seat share remains feeble, especially after it allied with the Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Trinamool Congress (TMC).

There are three possible scenarios that the survey takes into account:

Scenario 1: UPA and NDA as they were in 2014

In this scenario, the allies under both the coalitions stay the same as they were during the 2014 elections. Here, the UPA, without its major allies of SP, BSP and TMC, is predicted to get 122 seats, while the NDA will get 281 seats and Others get 140 seats.

In terms of vote share, UPA will have 31 percent, NDA will have 36 percent and others will get 33 percent.

Scenario 2: UPA forms alliance with BSP, SP and TMC

The UPA government’s performance in the polls will get a significant boost if it builds on its pre-poll alliances with BSP, SP and TMC. It will bag 224 seats, trailing the NDA at 228, only by four seats. Ninety-one seats will go to Others.

UPA’s vote share will be 41 percent, ahead of NDA’s 36 percent while Others will get 23 percent.

The survey states that since the BJP has a higher strike rate than Congress, it will get more seats even with less vote share. Congress is spread across the country thinly, while BJP is concentrated in north, west and northeast regions.

Scenario 3: NDA gets allies from southern India

If the NDA gets new alliance partners from the south, including AIADMK in Tamil Nadu and the YSR Congress in Andhra Pradesh, it is expected to garner 255 seats. The UPA would get 242 seats in this scenario, with 46 seats for Others.

NDA’s vote share, in this case, would be 41 percent, UPA is at 43 percent and Others at 16 percent.

If the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) and Biju Janata Dal (BJD) join NDA in a post-poll alliance, the number will go up to 282 seats. This will be a massive disadvantage for the UPA.

The survey suggests that it is of prime importance for the UPA to win at least two of the three upcoming state elections—Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh and Rajasthan.

The NDA alliance is ahead of the UPA in terms of seat share in all the scenarios.

Alternative to Modi

Rahul Gandhi was the most popular choice among the Opposition leaders, with 46 percent respondents voting for him as an alternative to Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Mamata Banerjee garnered eight percent votes while six percent thought former finance minister P Chidambaram and Rahul’s sister Priyanka Gandhi, who isn’t even actively involved in the party’s affairs, could give Modi a tough fight.

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