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Will India Witness Sudden Spike in Covid-19 Soon? Here’s What Experts Have to Say

The death toll climbed to 4,65,911 with 249 fresh fatalities, according to the data updated at 8 am on Monday.

While Europe has become the epicentre of the pandemic again, with several countries rushing to reimpose lockdowns as Covid-19 cases see an alarming rise, the situation back home is not so worrisome.

The caseload in India has been steadily declining and, if experts are to be believed, the country is unlikely to witness a similar trend as in Europe in the coming days.

An The Indian Express article has taken an analysis by ‘Project: Jeevan Raksha’, a public-private initiative providing insights on the handling of the pandemic, to make the point.

The report quotes Mysore Sanjeev, the convenor of the initiative, as saying that his team observed a “a drop of 72 per cent in insurance claims (non-government) for Covid-19 treatment” during October in comparison to that of September.

In September, there were 1.55 lakh claims across the country and in October, it dropped to 0.41 lakh, he said. “This validates that in October, despite it being the festive season and limited restriction, Covid hospitalisation has dropped considerably,” he added.

October also witnessed a 60 per cent fall in non-government insurance claims for Covid-19 deaths (1,688) compared to September (4,074).

The report further said that as per the nationwide projection made by the initiative operated by Proxima Consulting, India is estimated “to report 0.35 million new (Covid-19) cases between November 11 and December 10, only 2.3 per cent of the estimated 15 million global new Covid-19 cases.”

On Monday, India recorded 8,488 new infections, the lowest in 538 days, taking the country’s total tally of COVID-19 cases to 3,45,18,901, while the active cases declined to 1,18,443.

The death toll climbed to 4,65,911 with 249 fresh fatalities, according to the data updated at 8 am.

The daily rise in new coronavirus infections has been below 20,000 for 45 straight days and less than 50,000 daily new cases have been reported for 148 consecutive days now.

The active cases comprise 0.34 per cent of the total infections, the lowest since March 2020, while the national COVID-19 recovery rate was recorded at 98.31 per cent, the highest since March 2020, the ministry said.

A decrease of 4,271 cases has been recorded in the active COVID-19 caseload in a span of 24 hours. The daily positivity rate was recorded at 1.08 per cent. It has been less than two per cent for last 49 days.

The weekly positivity rate was recorded at 0.93 per cent. It has been below two per cent for the last 59 days, according to the ministry.

The number of people who have recuperated from the disease surged to 3,39,34,547, while the case fatality rate was recorded at 1.35 per cent. The cumulative doses administered in the country so far under the nationwide COVID-19 vaccination drive has exceeded 116.87 crore.

India’s COVID-19 tally had crossed the 20-lakh mark on August 7, 2020, 30 lakh on August 23, 40 lakh on September 5 and 50 lakh on September 16. It went past 60 lakh on September 28, 70 lakh on October 11, crossed 80 lakh on October 29, 90 lakh on November 20 and surpassed the one-crore mark on December 19. India crossed the grim milestone of two crore on May 4 and three crore on June 23. The 249 new fatalities include 196 from Kerala and 17 from Maharashtra.

A total of 4,65,911 deaths have been reported so far in the country including 1,40,739 from Maharashtra, 38,175 from Karnataka, 37,495 from Kerala, 36,375 from Tamil Nadu, 25,095 from Delhi, 22,909 from Uttar Pradesh and 19,383 from West Bengal.

The ministry stressed that more than 70 per cent of the deaths occurred due to comorbidities. “Our figures are being reconciled with the Indian Council of Medical Research,” the ministry said on its website, adding that state-wise distribution of figures is subject to further verification and reconciliation.

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