The summit, proposed by France’s Emmanuel Macron, will be expanded to relevant stakeholders to discuss “security and strategic stability in Europe,” a statement from the Elysee said, adding that preparations would start between Russia and the US on Thursday.
U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin have agreed in principle to a summit over Ukraine, the office of French President Emmanuel Macron said, provided Russia does not invade its neighbor. In a statement released early Monday, the Elysee Palace said Macron had pitched both leaders on a summit over “security and strategic stability in Europe.”
“Presidents Biden and Putin
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Slap sanctions on Russia now, Ukraine tells the EU
The European Union must start imposing some sanctions on Russia now to show it is serious about wanting to prevent a war in Ukraine, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said as he arrived in Brussels to meet the bloc’s foreign ministers. Western countries fear a buildup of Russian troops near Ukraine in recent weeks is a prelude to an invasion and say this would trigger “massive” sanctions against Moscow. Russia denies any plans to invade but wants sweeping security guarantees. “We expect decisions,” Kuleba said. “There are plenty of decisions the European Union can make now to send clear messages to Russia that its escalation will not be tolerated and Ukraine will not be left on its own.” “We believe that there are good and legitimate reasons to impose at least some of the sanctions now to demonstrate that the European Union is not only talking the talk about sanctions, but is also walking the walk.” But the EU’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell appeared to reject the idea of immediate sanctions, saying he still saw room for diplomacy. Speaking shortly before Kuleba, Borrell told reporters he would convene an extraordinary EU meeting to agree sanctions “when the moment comes”.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Euro gains, dollar eases on potential Biden-Putin summit
The euro rallied and the dollar retreated on Monday as investors pulled capital away from safe havens after U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed in principle to meet to discuss the crisis in Ukraine. The euro rose 0.5% to $1.1376 after losing some ground in early trade while the dollar index shed 0.4% against major currencies. “The price action reflects a combination of relief that Russia did not invade the Ukraine over the weekend (…) and the announcement that Presidents Biden and Putin have accepted in principle a French proposal for a diplomatic summit”, wrote Lee Hardman, a currency analyst at MUFG. Hopes that the crisis might be moving towards de-escalation was being felt through most financial asset classes, and European stock markets opened in positive territory. The risk-friendly Australian dollar gained 0.6% to $0.7218 and sterling ticked up 0.24% to $1.3630. By contrast, safe-have currencies which have benefited from the tensions spurred by Russia’s military build-up on Ukraine’s borders were on the defensive.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Kremlin says ‘premature’ to organise Biden-Putin summit on Ukraine
The Kremlin said Monday it was too early to organise a summit between Russian leader Vladimir Putin and US President Joe Biden, after Paris announced the possibility of a meeting to calm tensions over Ukraine. “It’s premature to talk about any specific plans for organising any kind of summits,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters, adding that no “concrete plans” had been put in place for a meeting. (AFP)
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | France sees ‘diplomatic hope’ to resolve Ukraine crisis
France said Monday that it sees a chance to resolve the crisis between Russia and Ukraine over Moscow’s troop build-up after Paris proposed a summit meeting between US President Joe Biden and Russia’s Vladimir Putin. “There is a diplomatic hope that was revived by the president” with the summit proposal, France’s Europe Minister Clement Beaune told LCI TV, after the offer brokered by President Emmanuel Macron. “If there is still a chance to avoid war, to avoid a confrontation and build a political and diplomatic solution, then we need to take it,” he said. The White House said Biden had in principle agreed to a meeting with Putin, so long as Moscow does not invade Ukraine, following talks Macron held with both leaders on Sunday.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Ukraine hopes Putin-Biden summit can lead to Russian pullback
Ukraine’s foreign minister on Monday welcomed a French initiative for a summit between US President Joe Biden and Russia’s Vladimir Putin, saying Kyiv hoped it would result in Moscow pulling back its troops. “We welcome this initiative. We believe that every effort aimed a diplomatic solution is worth trying,” Dmytro Kuleba said ahead of a meeting with EU counterparts in Brussels. “We hope that the two presidents will walk out from the room with an agreement about Russia withdrawing its forces from Ukraine.” (AFP)
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Oil falls on fresh hope of diplomacy over Ukraine crisis
Oil prices fell on Monday, reversing course from strong initial gains, as news of fresh diplomatic efforts to resolve the Ukraine crisis provided some relief from concerns about crude supply. Brent crude futures and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose more than $1 a barrel at the start of Asian trade as the Ukraine crisis threatened to disrupt Russian energy exports to Europe. But prices subsequently swung to a near $1 loss after the office of French President Emmanuel Macron said in a statement on Monday that U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin have agreed in principle to a summit over Ukraine. Brent crude futures slipped to $93.14 a barrel at 0730 GMT, down 40 cents or 0.4%, after earlier touching $95, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures dropped 28 cents to $90.79 a barrel, off an earlier high of $92.93. U.S. markets will be closed on Monday for the Presidents Day holiday. “A potential reduction of Ukraine tensions following the US/Russia summit announcement this morning has seen some sellers emerge in oil in Asia,” OANDA’s analyst Jeffrey Halley said. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Russia would be cut off from international financial markets and denied access to major exports needed to modernise its economy if it invaded Ukraine. “If a Russian invasion takes place as the U.S. and U.K. have warned in recent days, Brent futures could spike above $US100/bbl, even if an Iranian deal is reached,” Commonwealth Bank analyst Vivek Dhar said in a note.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | How a Russia-Ukraine conflict might hit global markets
Here are five charts showing where a potential escalation of tensions could be felt across global markets:
SAFE HAVENS: A major risk event usually sees investors rushing back to bonds, generally seen as the safest assets, and this time may not be different, even if a Russian invasion of Ukraine risks further fanning oil prices — and therefore inflation. Inflation at multi-decade highs and impending interest rate rises have made for a tetchy start to the year for bond markets, with U.S. 10-year rates still hovering close to the key 2% level and German 10-year yields above 0% for the first time since 2019. But an outright Russia-Ukraine conflict could change that. In forex markets, the euro/Swiss franc exchange rate is seen as the biggest indicator of geopolitical risk in the euro zone as the Swiss currency has long been viewed by investors a safe haven. It hit its strongest levels since May 2015 in late January.
GRAINS AND WHEAT: Any interruption to the flow of grain out of the Black Sea region is likely to have a major impact on prices and further fuel food inflation at a time when affordability is a major concern across the globe following the economic damage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Four major exporters – Ukraine, Russia, Kazakhstan and Romania – ship grain from ports in the Black Sea which could face disruptions from any military action or sanctions. Ukraine is projected to be the world’s third largest exporter of corn in the 2021/22 season and fourth largest exporter of wheat, according to International Grains Council data. Russia is the world’s top wheat exporter.
NATURAL GAS & OIL: Energy markets are likely to be hit if tensions turn into conflict. Europe relies on Russia for around 35% of its natural gas, mostly coming through pipelines which cross Belarus and Poland to Germany, Nord Stream 1 which goes directly to Germany, and others through Ukraine. In 2020 volumes of gas from Russia to Europe fell after lockdowns suppressed demand and did not recover fully last year when consumption surged, helping to send prices to record highs. As part of possible sanctions should Russia invade Ukraine, Germany has said it could halt the new Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia. The pipeline is projected to increase gas imports to Europe but also underlines its energy dependence on Moscow. Analysts expect natural gas exports from Russia to Western Europe to be significantly reduced through both Ukraine and Belarus in the event of sanctions, saying gas prices could revisit Q4 levels. Oil markets could also be affected through curbs or disruption. Ukraine moves Russian oil to Slovakia, Hungary and the Czech Republic. Ukraine’s transit of Russian crude for export to the bloc was 11.9 million metric tonnes in 2021, down from 12.3 million metric tonnes in 2020, S&P Global Platts said in a note. JPMorgan said the tensions risked a “material spike” in oil prices and noted that a rise to $150 a barrel would reduce global GDP growth to just 0.9% annualised in the first half of the year, while more than doubling inflation to 7.2%.
COMPANY EXPOSURE: Listed western firms could also feel the consequences from a Russian invasion, though for energy firms any blow to revenues or profits might be somewhat offset by a potential oil price jump. Britain’s BP owns a 19.75% stake in Rosneft, which makes up a third of its production, and also has a number of joint ventures with Russia’s largest oil producer. Shell holds a 27.5% stake in Russia’s first LNG plant, Sakhalin 2, accounting for a third of the country’s total LNG exports, as well as a number of joint ventures with state energy giant Gazprom. US energy firm Exxon operates through a subsidiary, the Sakhalin-1 oil and gas project, in which India’s state-run explorer Oil and Natural Gas Corp also holds a stake. Norway’s Equinor is also active in the country. In the financial sector, the risk is concentrated in Europe. Austria’s Raiffeisen Bank International derived 39% of its estimated net profit last year from its Russian subsidiary, Hungary’s OTP and UniCredit around 7% from theirs, while Societe Generale was seen generating 6% of group net profits through its Rosbank retail operations. Dutch financial company ING also has a footprint in Russia though that accounts for less than 1% of net profit, according to calculations by JPMorgan. Looking at loan exposure to Russia, French and Austrian banks have the largest among Western lenders at $24.2 billion and $17.2 billion, respectively. They are followed by U.S. lenders at $16 billion, Japanese at $9.6 billion and German banks at $8.8 billion, data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) shows. Other sectors also have exposure: Renault generates 8% of its EBIT in Russia. Germany’s Metro AG’s 93 Russian stores generate just under 10% of its sales and 17% of its core profit while Danish brewer Carlsberg owns Baltika, Russia’s largest brewer with market share of almost 40%.
REGIONAL DOLLAR BONDS AND CURRENCIES: Russian and Ukrainian assets will be at the forefront of any markets fallout from potential military action. Both countries’ dollar bonds have underperformed their peers in recent months as investors have trimmed exposure amid escalating tensions between Washington and its allies and Moscow. Ukraine’s fixed income markets are chiefly the remit of emerging market investors, while Russia’s overall standing on capital markets has shrunk in recent years amid sanctions and geopolitical tensions, somewhat cushioning any threat of contagion through those channels. However, Ukrainian and Russian currencies have also suffered, with the hryvnia the worst-performing emerging markets currency year-to-date and the rouble at number five. The Ukraine-Russia situation presents “substantial uncertainties” for foreign currency markets, said Chris Turner, global head of markets at ING. “The events of late 2014 remind us of the liquidity gaps and U.S. dollar hoarding that led to a substantial drop in the rouble at that time,” said Turner.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Russia has lists of Ukrainians ‘to be killed or sent to camps’, US warns UN
The United States has warned the United Nations it has information that Russia has lists of Ukrainians “to be killed or sent to camps” in the event of an invasion, according to a letter sent to the UN rights chief and obtained by AFP Sunday. The letter, which came as Washington warned of an imminent invasion by Russian troops massed near the Ukrainian border, says the United States is “deeply concerned” and warns of a potential “human rights catastrophe.” The United States has “credible information that indicates Russian forces are creating lists of identified Ukrainians to be killed or sent to camps following a military occupation,” the letter says. “We also have credible information that Russian forces will likely use lethal measures to disperse peaceful protests or otherwise counter peaceful exercises of perceived resistance from civilian populations,” says the message, addressed to UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Tokyo shares end lower on Ukraine crisis
Tokyo shares ended lower on Monday as geopolitical tensions soared over the situation in Ukraine. The benchmark Nikkei 225 index gave up 0.78 percent, or 211.20 points, to 26,910.87, while the broader Topix index slipped 0.71 percent, or 13.63 points, to 1,910.68. The dollar stood at 114.94 yen in Asian trade, off slightly from 115.03 yen in New York late Friday. The intensifying crisis over a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine continued to weigh on the market.
But Tokyo stocks trimmed losses after US President Joe Biden and his counterpart Vladimir Putin agreed to a summit to be held only if Russia does not invade Ukraine, although the news was not enough to send shares into positive territory. “Investors have been wary of geopolitical risks over the intensifying Ukraine situation, causing the Nikkei index to open lower,” Okasan Online Securities said.
The 1.2 percent fall in the tech-rich US Nasdaq index on Friday also drove down “growth” shares of rapidly expanding companies, the brokerage added. After a morning selloff, investors bought some shares on dips, halting a further drop of the market. They then took a wait-and-see stance towards the end of the session with the US market closed for a national holiday on Monday.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | US says Russia closer to invading Ukraine
Russia on Sunday rescinded earlier pledges to pull tens of thousands of its troops back from Ukraine’s northern border, a move that U.S. leaders said put Russia another step closer to what they said was the planned invasion of Ukraine. Residents of Ukraine’s capital filled a gold-domed cathedral to pray for peace.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Russia could lose financial markets access, advanced goods if it invades Ukraine: EU chief
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen disclosed some details of the sanctions Moscow would face if it invaded Ukraine, saying Russia would be cut off from international financial markets and denied access to major export goods. Western leaders have until now refused to be drawn on the details of the responses they have agreed on if Russia invaded, only ruling out a military response and promising economic sanctions that would be unprecedented in scale.
“Russia would in principle be cut off from the international financial markets,” Von der Leyen told ARD public television late on Sunday evening. Sanctions would be imposed on “all goods we make that Russia urgently needs to modernise and diversify its economy, where we are globally dominant and they have no replacement,” she said. She said sanctions would not be imposed until after any invasion, rejecting calls on Saturday by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy for immediate sanctions.
“The move to sanctions is so enormous and consequential that we know we must always give Russia a chance to return to diplomacy and the negotiating table,” she said. “This window is still open.” Russia, which has stationed some 150,000 soldiers around Ukraine’s northern and eastern borders, is demanding a guarantee that Ukraine never be allowed to join the NATO alliance, something President Vladimir Putin says is essential to Russia’s long term security.
But Von der Leyen, who heads the 27-member European Union’s executive, said Russia’s reliance on fossil fuel exports was its weakness. “They make up two thirds of its exports, and half of the Russia budget comes from them,” she said. Russia needed to modernise, and “precisely that would no longer be possible” if further sanctions were raised.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Euro gains on potential Joe Biden-Vladimir Putin summit
The euro rallied on Monday, taking heart from news of a possible meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss the crisis in Ukraine. Many details remain unclear but the office of French President Emmanuel Macron said the two leaders had agreed in principle to a summit on “security and strategic stability in Europe.”
The White House said in a statement that Biden had accepted the meeting “in principle” but only “if an invasion hasn’t happened.” The euro climbed 0.35% higher to $1.1362 after it lost some ground in early trade. The risk-friendly Australian dollar gained 0.55%. “Russia-Ukraine tensions are starting to dominate risk sentiment and price action. The market is likely to keep chasing headlines without any clarity on the eventual outcome,” said analysts at Barclays in a note.
The yen in contrast gave up most of its early gains to trade at 114.97 yen per dollar. Like the Swiss franc, the safe-haven Japanese currency has benefited from the tensions spurred by Russia’s military build-up on Ukraine’s borders. Sterling gained 0.19% to $1.3623 ahead of the release of PMI data which will give an indication of the impact of the Omicron strain of COVID-19 on the British economy.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six peers, fell 0.28%. Currency markets participants are also focused on central bank policy, seeking clues on the speed and size of interest rate hikes in major markets. Markets will be closely watching remarks from U.S. Federal Reserve policy makers this week for any hint that an expected rate hike at the Fed’s March meeting could veer more towards to 50 basis points instead of the current consensus for a 25 basis point increase.
Public remarks are also due from several BOE policy makers. Bitcoin BTC=BTSP> recovered a little from a mild bruising over the weekend. The world’s largest cryptocurrency was up 2.3% at around $39,000. Early on Monday it touched a two-week low of $38,210.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Russia has lists of Ukrainians ‘to be killed or sent to camps’, US warns UNThe United States has warned the United Nations it has information that Russia has lists of Ukrainians “to be killed or sent to camps” in the event of an invasion, according to a letter sent to the UN rights chief and obtained by AFP Sunday. The letter, which came as Washington warned of an imminent invasion by Russian troops massed near the Ukrainian border, says the United States is “deeply concerned” and warns of a potential “human rights catastrophe.”The United States has “credible information that indicates Russian forces are creating lists of identified Ukrainians to be killed or sent to camps following a military occupation,” the letter says. “We also have credible information that Russian forces will likely use lethal measures to disperse peaceful protests or otherwise counter peaceful exercises of perceived resistance from civilian populations,” says the message, addressed to UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet.The note, signed by Bathsheba Nell Crocker, US ambassador to the UN in Geneva, warns a Russian invasion of Ukraine could bring with it abuses such as kidnappings or torture, and could target political dissidents and religious and ethnic minorities, among others. Russia has placed more than 150,000 troops near Ukraine’s borders in recent weeks, the United States and Western allies have estimated. Moscow denies it plans to attack its neighbor, but is seeking a guarantee that Ukraine will never join NATO and that the Western alliance will remove forces from Eastern Europe, demands the West has refused.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Amid Russia-Ukraine tensions, Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan to visit Russia on February 23-24: ReportsPrime Minister Imran Khan will visit Russia on February 23-24, the official Russian media has reported, signalling the first visit by a Pakistani premier to Moscow in 23 years. Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed that preparations for the visit of the Prime Minister Khan were underway, the state-run TASS news agency reported on Sunday.”The visit will take place on February 23-24,” it quoted a source in diplomatic circles as saying. Khan’s visit has not been officially announced by Pakistan and Russia. Khan is expected to hold a key meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, sources in Pakistan said earlier. Pakistan and Russia are expected to strike major deals during the trip, including a movement forward on Russian investment to build a USD 2 billion worth gas pipeline, Pakistani media reported last week.A Russian delegation was in Pakistan recently to negotiate toll-free proceedings and tax exemptions in connection with the Pakistan Gas Stream Project. The Pakistani leadership wants to sign a commercial agreement with Russia during Khan’s visit. Another project which is likely to be on the agenda is the gas pipeline from Kazakhstan. Khan will become the first Pakistani premier to visit Russia in 23 years after former premier Nawaz Sharif travelled to Moscow after the end of the Cold War.Pakistan’s ties with Russia have moved past the bitter Cold War hostilities in recent years and the chill in the relations between Pakistan and the US has further pushed the country towards Russia and China. In April last year, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited Islamabad after a gap of almost nine years. During the visit, he conveyed a message to Pakistani leadership on behalf of President Putin that Moscow was willing to extend all possible help to Islamabad.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | US claims Russia has list of Ukrainians “to be killed or sent to camps” following a military occupation: The Washington Post
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | As the Ukraine crisis escalates Middle East countries will be forced to pick a sideAs the spectaer of all-out war in Ukraine looms large, a confrontation between Russia and the West over Ukriane will undoubtedly have ripple effects on the countries of the Middile East, which must take hard decisions and choose sides.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Vladimir Putin, Joe Biden agree in principle to summit as Ukraine tensions soarRussian President Vladimir Putin and his US counterpart Joe Biden have agreed to a summit — to be held only if Moscow does not invade Ukraine, France announced Monday following a frantic new round of diplomacy to avert an all-out war. Both leaders have said yes in principle to the summit, proposed by French President Emmanuel Macron, his office said, with the White House confirming Biden’s willingness, though it was notably cautious.A senior administration official told AFP: “Timing to be determined. Format to be determined so it’s all completely notional.” The Elysee added that the summit will be expanded to “relevant stakeholders” and that preparations would start between Russia and the United States on Thursday. The possible breakthrough came after Washington warned of an imminent invasion and Ukraine and Russia blamed each other for a spike in shellings on the front line separating Kyiv’s forces from Moscow-backed separatists.The bombardments have sent Ukrainians fleeing to cellars and other shelters, while some civilians have been evacuated. In its own statement, the White House warned that it was still ready “to impose swift and severe consequences” should Russia invade. “And currently, Russia appears to be continuing preparations for a full-scale assault on Ukraine very soon,” US press secretary Jen Psaki said.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Russia could lose financial markets access, advanced goods if it invades Ukraine: EU chiefEuropean Commission President Ursula von der Leyen disclosed some details of the sanctions Moscow would face if it invaded Ukraine, saying Russia would be cut off from international financial markets and denied access to major export goods. Western leaders have until now refused to be drawn on the details of the responses they have agreed on if Russia invaded, only ruling out a military response and promising economic sanctions that would be unprecedented in scale.”Russia would in principle be cut off from the international financial markets,” Von der Leyen told ARD public television late on Sunday evening. Sanctions would be imposed on “all goods we make that Russia urgently needs to modernise and diversify its economy, where we are globally dominant and they have no replacement,” she said. She said sanctions would not be imposed until after any invasion, rejecting calls on Saturday by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy for immediate sanctions.”The move to sanctions is so enormous and consequential that we know we must always give Russia a chance to return to diplomacy and the negotiating table,” she said. “This window is still open.” Russia, which has stationed some 150,000 soldiers around Ukraine’s northern and eastern borders, is demanding a guarantee that Ukraine never be allowed to join the NATO alliance, something President Vladimir Putin says is essential to Russia’s long term security.But Von der Leyen, who heads the 27-member European Union’s executive, said Russia’s reliance on fossil fuel exports was its weakness. “They make up two thirds of its exports, and half of the Russia budget comes from them,” she said. Russia needed to modernise, and “precisely that would no longer be possible” if further sanctions were raised.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Asia shares skid, oil surges as Ukraine tensions smoulderAsian share markets slid and oil surged on Monday amid warnings Russia was set to invade Ukraine, risking sanctions that could trigger a further spike in energy costs and stoke global inflation. Russia upped the ante in the high-stakes diplomatic game by extending military drills in Belarus, while satellite imagery from Maxar showed multiple new field deployments of armour and troops near the border with Ukraine.An adviser to French President Emmanuel Macron said France and Russia had agreed that a meeting of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe should be called for Monday. Oil prices climbed almost 2% in early action and Treasury futures firmed. S&P 500 futures fell 0.6% and Nasdaq futures drifted 1.2%. U.S. markets are on holiday on Monday but futures still traded.MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slipped 0.4%, while Japan’s Nikkei lost 1.9%. The latest survey of global fund managers from BofA confirmed the bearish turn as holdings of cash rose to the highest since mid-2020. Funds had the largest overweight share in energy in a decade, and were the most underweight in tech in 15 years.Also troubling markets has been the prospect of an aggressive tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve as inflation runs rampant. The Fed’s favoured measure of core inflation is due out later this week and is forecast to show an annual rise of 5.1% – the fastest pace since the early 1980s. “January inflation readings have surprised materially to the upside,” noted JPMorgan chief economist Bruce Kasman.”We now look for the Fed to hike 25bp (basis points) at each of the next nine meetings, with the policy rate approaching a neutral stance by early next year.” At least six Fed officials are set to speak this week and markets will be hyper-sensitive to their views on a possible hike of 50 basis points in March. Recent commentary has leant against such a drastic step and futures have scaled back the chance of a half-point rise to around 20% from well above 50% a week ago.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | US plans to cut ties with targeted Russian banks if Ukraine is invadedPresident Joe Biden’s administration has prepared an initial package of sanctions against Russia that includes barring U.S. financial institutions from processing transactions for major Russian banks, three people familiar with the matter said. The measures, which would only be implemented if Russia invades Ukraine, aim to hurt the Russian economy by cutting the “correspondent” banking relationships between targeted Russian banks and U.S. banks that enable international payments.While U.S. authorities have said banking restrictions would be part of a package of possible sanctions, the administration’s plan to cut correspondent banking ties – which underpin global money flows – has not previously been reported. The United States will also wield its most powerful sanctioning tool against certain Russian individuals and companies by placing them on the Specially Designated Nationals (SDN) list, effectively kicking them out of the U.S. banking system, banning their trade with Americans and freezing their U.S. assets, the same sources said.The White House and Treasury Department declined to comment. The sources said the package could change up to the last minute and it was unclear who the targets would be. However, they believe top Russian financial institutions including VTB Bank, Sberbank, VEB, and Gazprombank are possible targets. Experts consulted by Reuters said that while the correspondent banking tool lacks the punch of an SDN designation, which freezes a bank’s assets, they could still deal a meaningful blow to the target banks by making it difficult to transact in U.S. dollars, the global reserve currency.Much of global trade is transacted in dollars. It is unclear whether Russian banks would be added to the SDN list, but both types of sanctions could hit Russia hard. “Since a significant number of global trade transactions are in U.S. dollars this is a sanction with bite, but without the more complicated and deadly sanction of being placed on the SDN list and having all assets in the U.S. or in the hands of U.S. persons frozen,” said Washington lawyer Kay Georgi, who specializes in international trade. Sources noted that the administration could exempt certain transactions from the restrictions if deemed necessary.‘UPFRONT COSTS’The Biden administration has been threatening tough banking sanctions against Russia for weeks in a bid to deter Russian President Vladimir Putin from invading Ukraine. Moscow has amassed upwards of 150,000 troops on Ukraine’s borders, but Putin has denied plans to launch an attack. Peter Harrell, who sits on the National Security Council, said last month that “heavy hitting financial sanctions” were part of a strategy to hurt Russia’s economy but spare its citizens.”The goal of the financial sanctions is really to have short term upfront costs on Russia, to trigger capital flight, to trigger inflation, to make the Russian central bank provide bailouts to its banks,” he said in a speech late last month. The tough warnings have put some U.S. financial firms on edge. Members of the financial services and payment industries have been in touch in recent days with the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, which administers sanctions, sources said.Tensions grew over the weekend as Russia extended military drills in Belarus, heightening fears among Western powers of an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine. Biden and Putin on Sunday agreed in principle to a summit, France said, offering hope conflict could be avoided. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the United States and Britain would cut off Russian companies’ access to U.S. dollars and British pounds if the Kremlin orders an invasion. The Biden administration has been similarly aggressive in its rhetoric. In a briefing on Friday, Deputy National Security advisor Daleep Singh told reporters that the cost to Russia of an invasion would be “immense, both to its economy and its strategic position in the world.”
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Joe Biden will meet Vladimir Putin ‘if an invasion hasn’t happened’; Read White House full statementUS President Joe Biden has agreed in principle to a meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin so long as Moscow does not invade Ukraine, the White House confirmed Sunday after it was first announced by France. The US is “committed to pursuing diplomacy until the moment an invasion begins,” press secretary Jen Psaki said in a statement. “President Biden accepted in principle a meeting with President Putin … if an invasion hasn’t happened.” “We are also ready to impose swift and severe consequences should Russia instead choose war. And currently, Russia appears to be continuing preparations for a full-scale assault on Ukraine very soon,” she added
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Oil slips on Ukraine summit plan, prospect of Iran nuclear dealOil prices fell on Monday on a plan for U.S. President Joe Biden and Russia’s Vladimir Putin to hold a summit on the Ukraine crisis and on prospects of a nuclear deal between Iran and world powers in the next week or two. The office of French President Emmanuel Macron said in a statement on Monday he had pitched to both leaders a summit over “security and strategic stability in Europe.” The White House said Biden had accepted the meeting “in principle” but only “if an invasion hasn’t happened.”Brent crude futures fell 73 cents or 0.8% to $92.81 at 0224 GMT after having jumped more $1 than to $95.00 in early trade, its highest level since Wednesday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures similarly fell 52 cents or 0.6% to $90.55 a barrel after having hit a high of $92.93. Oil markets have been jittery over the past month on worries a Russian invasion of its neighbour could disrupt crude supplies, but price gains have been limited by the possibility of more than 1 million barrels a day of Iranian crude returning to the market.A senior European Union official said on Friday a deal to revive Iran’s 2015 nuclear agreement was “very very close”. Analysts said the market remained tight, and any addition of oil would help, but prices would remain volatile in the near term as Iranian crude would only likely return later this year. “There’s just so many pressures geopolitically it’s difficult to know what the answer is (on market movements) – with Ukraine and Iran,” said National Australia Bank commodity analyst Baden Moore.European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Russia would be cut off from international financial markets and denied access to major exports needed to modernise its economy if it invaded Ukraine. “If a Russian invasion takes place as the U.S. and U.K. have warned in recent days, Brent futures could spike above $US100/bbl, even if an Iranian deal is reached,” Commonwealth Bank analyst Vivek Dhar said in a note.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Vladimir Putin, Joe Biden agree in principle to summit as Ukraine tensions soarRussian President Vladimir Putin and his US counterpart Joe Biden have agreed to a summit — to be held only if Moscow does not invade Ukraine, France announced Monday following a frantic new round of diplomacy to avert an all-out war. Both leaders have said yes in principle to the summit, proposed by French President Emmanuel Macron, his office said, with the White House confirming Biden’s willingness, though it was notably cautious.A senior administration official told AFP: “Timing to be determined. Format to be determined so it’s all completely notional.” The Elysee added that the summit will be expanded to “relevant stakeholders” and that preparations would start between Russia and the United States on Thursday. The possible breakthrough came after Washington warned of an imminent invasion and Ukraine and Russia blamed each other for a spike in shellings on the front line separating Kyiv’s forces from Moscow-backed separatists.The bombardments have sent Ukrainians fleeing to cellars and other shelters, while some civilians have been evacuated. In its own statement, the White House warned that it was still ready “to impose swift and severe consequences” should Russia invade. “And currently, Russia appears to be continuing preparations for a full-scale assault on Ukraine very soon,” US press secretary Jen Psaki said.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | French statement announcing Joe Biden-Vladimir Putin summit on UkraineUS President Joe Biden and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin have accepted in principle to hold a summit, so long as Moscow does not invade Ukraine, the French presidency announced Monday. Western powers have mounted a last-ditch effort to prevent a European war after a huge buildup of Russian troops along Ukraine’s frontier. The summit, announced by France after a phone call between President Emmanuel Macron and Putin, has been accepted in principle by Moscow and Washington, according to the announcement. Here is the full statement announcing the summit:The President of the Republic spoke with the President of the United States, Mr. Joe Biden and the President of the Russian Federation, Mr. Vladimir Putin. He proposed a summit to be held between President Biden and President Putin and then with relevant stakeholders to discuss security and strategic stability in Europe. Presidents Biden and Putin have both accepted the principle of such a summit. The substance will have to be prepared by Secretary Blinken and Minister Lavrov during their meeting on Thursday 24 February. It can only be held at the condition that Russia does not invade Ukraine. The President of the Republic will work with all stakeholders to prepare the content of these discussions.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Gold slips from over 8-month high as Joe Biden-Vladimir Putin meeting plans ease demandGold prices fell from a more than eight-month high hit earlier on Monday, as safe-haven demand eased after the U.S. president agreed to meet his Russian counterpart over the Ukraine crisis. U.S. President Joe Biden has accepted in principle a summit with Russia’s Vladimir Putin over the Ukraine crisis after the two countries’ foreign ministers meet next week and if an invasion has not occurred, the White House said on Sunday.Russia will extend military drills in Belarus that were due to end on Sunday, the Belarusian defence ministry announced, adding to mounting tensions as satellite images appeared to show new deployments of Russian armour and troops close to Ukraine. A potential invasion of Ukraine by neighbouring Russia would be felt across a number of markets, from wheat and energy prices and the region’s sovereign dollar bonds to safe-haven assets and stock markets.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Russia could lose financial markets access, advanced goods if it invades Ukraine: EU chiefEuropean Commission President Ursula von der Leyen disclosed some details of the sanctions Moscow would face if it invaded Ukraine, saying Russia would be cut off from international financial markets and denied access to major export goods. Western leaders have until now refused to be drawn on the details of the responses they have agreed on if Russia invaded, only ruling out a military response and promising economic sanctions that would be unprecedented in scale.”Russia would in principle be cut off from the international financial markets,” Von der Leyen told ARD public television late on Sunday evening. Sanctions would be imposed on “all goods we make that Russia urgently needs to modernise and diversify its economy, where we are globally dominant and they have no replacement,” she said. She said sanctions would not be imposed until after any invasion, rejecting calls on Saturday by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy for immediate sanctions.”The move to sanctions is so enormous and consequential that we know we must always give Russia a chance to return to diplomacy and the negotiating table,” she said. “This window is still open.” Russia, which has stationed some 150,000 soldiers around Ukraine’s northern and eastern borders, is demanding a guarantee that Ukraine never be allowed to join the NATO alliance, something President Vladimir Putin says is essential to Russia’s long term security.But Von der Leyen, who heads the 27-member European Union’s executive, said Russia’s reliance on fossil fuel exports was its weakness. “They make up two thirds of its exports, and half of the Russia budget comes from them,” she said. Russia needed to modernise, and “precisely that would no longer be possible” if further sanctions were raised.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Images show new Russian deployments of armor and troops near UkraineSatellite images show multiple new field deployments of armored equipment and troops from Russian garrisons near the border with Ukraine, a private U.S. company said on Sunday, in what its director said indicated increased military readiness. The new activity comes as Russia extended military drills in Belarus that were due to end on Sunday, heightening fears among Western powers over an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine.The images released by U.S.-based Maxar Technologies, which has been tracking the buildup of Russian forces for weeks, could not be independently verified by Reuters. “This new activity represents a change in the pattern of the previously observed deployments of battle groups (tanks, armored personnel carriers, artillery and support equipment),” Maxar said in a release on Sunday.Several large deployments of battle groups had been observed around the military garrison at Soloti, Russia, as of Feb. 13 according to satellite images, Maxar said. Images on Sunday showed most of the combat units and support equipment at Soloti had departed. Extensive vehicle tracks and some convoys of armored equipment were seen throughout the area, the company said.Some equipment has also been deployed east of nearby Valuyki, Russia, in a field approximately 15 km (9 miles) north of the Ukrainian border. A number of new field deployments are also seen northwest of the Russian city of Belgorod, Maxar said. Based on the tracks and the snow, the activity appeared to be recent, Stephen Wood, senior director at Maxar News Bureau, told Reuters. “To me it indicates an increased state of readiness,” he said.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Asia shares skid, oil surges as Ukraine tensions smoulderAsian share markets slid and oil surged on Monday amid warnings Russia was set to invade Ukraine, risking sanctions that could trigger a further spike in energy costs and stoke global inflation. Russia upped the ante in the high-stakes diplomatic game by extending military drills in Belarus, while satellite imagery from Maxar showed multiple new field deployments of armour and troops near the border with Ukraine.An adviser to French President Emmanuel Macron said France and Russia had agreed that a meeting of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe should be called for Monday. Oil prices climbed almost 2% in early action and Treasury futures firmed. S&P 500 futures fell 0.6% and Nasdaq futures drifted 1.2%. U.S. markets are on holiday on Monday but futures still traded.MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slipped 0.4%, while Japan’s Nikkei lost 1.9%. The latest survey of global fund managers from BofA confirmed the bearish turn as holdings of cash rose to the highest since mid-2020. Funds had the largest overweight share in energy in a decade, and were the most underweight in tech in 15 years.Also troubling markets has been the prospect of an aggressive tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve as inflation runs rampant. The Fed’s favoured measure of core inflation is due out later this week and is forecast to show an annual rise of 5.1% – the fastest pace since the early 1980s. “January inflation readings have surprised materially to the upside,” noted JPMorgan chief economist Bruce Kasman.”We now look for the Fed to hike 25bp (basis points) at each of the next nine meetings, with the policy rate approaching a neutral stance by early next year.” At least six Fed officials are set to speak this week and markets will be hyper-sensitive to their views on a possible hike of 50 basis points in March. Recent commentary has leant against such a drastic step and futures have scaled back the chance of a half-point rise to around 20% from well above 50% a week ago.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | India asks citizens in Ukraine to leave temporarily as ‘Russian invasion’ threat loomsAs the threats of a ‘Russian invasion’ looms over Ukraine, India on February 20 asked its citizens staying in the eastern European country for non-essential purposes to “leave temporarily”. This was the second advisory issued by the Indian Embassy in Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, in the last five days. A similar appeal to temporarily leave the nation was issued on February 15.In the latest advisory, the Indian Embassy urged the Indian students and other nationals to make use of the available commercial and charter flights for a timely departure. “In view of the continued high levels of tensions and uncertainties with respect to the situation in Ukraine, all Indian nationals whose stay is not deemed essential and all Indian students, are advised to leave Ukraine temporarily. Available commercial flights, and charter flights may be availed for travel, for orderly and timely departure,” it said.”Indian students are advised to also get in touch with respective student contractors for updates on charter flights, and also continue to follow Embassy Facebook, website and Twitter for any update,” the advisory further added. Government sources later told news agency ANI that the family members of Indian Embassy officials in Kyiv have been asked to move back to India in view of the escalating geopolitical tensions. An official confirmation was, however, awaited.The fears of a military confrontation between Russia and Ukraine escalated after the White House, in a statement issued late on February 19, said the Russian troops may launch an attack “at any time”. Russia’s strategic nuclear forces held exercises overseen by President Vladimir Putin, the White House noted, adding that the Russian troops massed near Ukraine’s border were “poised to strike”.Earlier on February 20, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attempted to reach out to his Russian counterpart in a bid to defuse the tensions. “I don’t know what the President of the Russian Federation wants, so I am proposing a meeting,” Zelensky was quoted as saying at the Munich Security Conference, where he also held brief discussions with US Vice President Kamala Harris.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Joe Biden will meet Vladimir Putin ‘if an invasion hasn’t happened’: White HouseUS President Joe Biden has agreed in principle to a meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin so long as Moscow does not invade Ukraine, the White House confirmed Sunday after it was first announced by France. The US is “committed to pursuing diplomacy until the moment an invasion begins,” press secretary Jen Psaki said in a statement. “President Biden accepted in principle a meeting with President Putin … if an invasion hasn’t happened.” “We are also ready to impose swift and severe consequences should Russia instead choose war. And currently, Russia appears to be continuing preparations for a full-scale assault on Ukraine very soon,” she added.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | In Ukraine conflict, even the elderly gear up for the battlefrontElderly men and women, some well past retirement age, are getting ready to fight on either side of the separatist conflict in Ukraine as tensions ratchet higher by the day. Fighting between Russian-backed separatists and the Ukrainian army has been dragging on for eight years but an increase in shelling in recent days has deepened Western fears that Russia could use the conflict as a pretext to invade Ukraine – an accusation that Moscow denies.In the Ukrainian port of Mariupol, less than 20 km (12 miles) from the nearest trenches, grizzled pensioners are among those coming forward to volunteer for Territorial Defence units where they receive basic weapons and first aid training. Anton, a welder in his late 50s, said he was sending his family away for safety to relatives in central Ukraine and staying to defend the city from potential attack.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin agree in principle to Ukraine summitU.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin have agreed in principle to a summit over Ukraine, the office of French President Emmanuel Macron said, provided Russia does not invade its neighbor. In a statement released early Monday, the Elysee Palace said Macron had pitched both leaders on a summit over “security and strategic stability in Europe.””Presidents Biden and Putin have both accepted the principle of such a summit,” the statement said, before adding that such a meeting would be impossible if Russia invaded Ukraine as Western nations fear it plans to. The White House did not immediately return a message seeking comment. The announcement – released after a volley of phone calls between Macron and leaders on both sides of the Atlantic – comes after a week of heightened tensions spurred by Russia’s military buildup up and down the Ukrainian border.Nerves were further frayed after the Belarusian defence ministry announced that Russia would extend military drills in Belarus that were due to end on Sunday. Satellite images appeared to show new deployments of Russian armor and troops close to Ukraine. The White House said Biden was canceling a trip to Delaware and remaining in Washington following a two-hour meeting of his National Security Council.U.S.-based satellite imagery company Maxar reported multiple new deployments of Russian military units in forests, farms, and industrial areas as little as 15 km (9 miles) from the border with Ukraine – something Maxar said represented a change from what had been seen in recent weeks.”Until recently, most of the deployments had been seen primarily positioned at or near existing military garrisons and training areas,” the company said. Blinken told CNN “everything we are seeing suggests that this is dead serious,” adding the West was equally prepared if Moscow invades. “Until the tanks are actually rolling, and the planes are flying, we will use every opportunity and every minute we have to see if diplomacy can still dissuade President Putin from carrying this forward.”
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Ukraine rebels say two civilians killed in shelling by govt forcesRussian-backed rebels in eastern Ukraine said on Monday two civilians were killed in shelling by the Kyiv government forces, Russia’s RIA news agency reported. RIA cited representatives of the self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic as saying that the incident occurred late on Sunday.
Russia Ukraine Conflict LIVE Updates | Vladimir Putin-Joe Biden ‘accept in principle’ to hold a Ukraine summit: ElyseeUS President Joe Biden and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin have accepted in principle to hold a summit, which can only happen if Moscow does not invade Ukraine, the French presidency announced Monday. The summit, proposed by France’s Emmanuel Macron, will be expanded to relevant stakeholders to discuss “security and strategic stability in Europe,” a statement from the Elysee said, adding that preparations would start between Russia and the US on Thursday.
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