Surveys of purchasing managers in emerging Asian markets declined last month as export orders weakened, adding to signs of fragility in the global economy.
Oil prices soared nearly 6 per cent on Monday after Saudi Arabia and other major oil producers said they will cut production by 1.15 million barrels per day from May until the end of the year. Shares in Asia were mixed.
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US benchmark crude oil rose USD 4.24 to USD 79.91 per barrel, or 5.6 per cent, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
It rose USD 1.30 to USD 75.67 per barrel on Friday, ahead of the weekend meeting where members of the so-called OPEC+ group of oil exporting countries decided on the cuts, which are in addition to a reduction announced last October that infuriated the Biden administration.
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Brent crude, the pricing basis for international oils, gained USD 4.35 to USD 84.24 per barrel, or 5.4 per cent.
The cuts in oil output immediately pushed prices higher and were expected to boost gas prices, adding to strains in many countries where high fuel prices are a heavy burden. Higher oil prices also will complicate the efforts by central banks to rein in inflation.
“This will create both political waves across Europe and even higher general inflation in the USA, leading to renewed pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep hiking rates aggressively,” Clifford Bennett, chief economist at ACY Securities, said in a report.
European shares opened higher. Germany’s DAX added 0.2 per cent to 15,665.63 and the CAC40 in Paris climbed 0.5 per cent to 7,356.77. Britain’s FTSE 100 surged 0.8 per cent to 7,694.79.
The future for the S and P 500 slipped 0.2 per cent while the contract for the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.3 per cent.
In Asian trading, Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index gained 0.5 per cent to 28,188.15, even after a quarterly survey by the Bank of Japan showed business sentiment among big Japanese manufacturers falling in the first quarter of this year. The headline measure of the “Tankan” showed positive sentiment falling to 1 from 7 in December, the worse quarterly result since since December 2020.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng edged 9 points higher to 20,409.18, while the Shanghai Composite index rose 0.7 per cent to 3,296.40. In South Korea, the Kospi fell 0.2 per cent to 2,472.34.
Australia’s S and P/ASX 200 advanced 0.6 per cent to 7,223.00. Shares rose in Taiwan but edged lower in Bangkok.
Surveys of purchasing managers in emerging Asian markets declined last month as export orders weakened, adding to signs of fragility in the global economy.
“With global growth set to remain weak in the coming quarters, we expect manufacturing output in Asia to remain under pressure,” Shivaan Tandon of Capital Economics said in a commentary.
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On Friday, the S and P 500 gained 1.4 per cent on Friday, rising 3.5 per cent for the month, with tech stocks leading the way. Friday’s gains came after a report showed inflation slowed in February, though it was still high on a historical basis. A slowdown in inflation could give the Federal Reserve more leeway to take it easier on interest rates.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.3 per cent, while the Nasdaq composite climbed 1.7 per cent. Big leaps for technology stocks drove a Nasdaq gain of 16.8 per cent for the quarter.
High rates can undercut inflation but only by bluntly slowing the entire economy, which raises the risk of a recession. They also drag down prices for stocks, bonds and other investments.
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Expectations for an easier Fed have helped Big Tech stocks in particular because high-growth stocks are seen as some of the biggest beneficiaries of lower rates. That’s helped to prop up the S and P 500, where Big Tech stocks play an outsized role because of their massive size. Apple, Microsoft and Google’s parent Alphabet each posted double-digit gains for March.
Adding to challenges for the Fed, the second- and third-largest US bank failures in history rocked markets after depositors rushed to pull their money out of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. The runs have pushed investors to cast harsher scrutiny on banks globally in the hunt for seemingly weak links.
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The banking industry’s troubles also could act like hikes to interest rates if they cause banks to pull back on lending, stifling hiring and growth for the economy.
In other trading Monday, the US dollar rose to 133.50 Japanese yen from 133.28 yen late on Friday. The euro strengthened to USD 1.0848 from USD 1.0844.
