The move symbolises the geopolitical tug of war between the Western and non-Western powers. It also highlights how major players like Russia and China are strategically manoeuvring to challenge the dominance of Western-centric forums
Russian President Vladimir Putin had conveyed in a phone call with Prime Minister Narendra Modi last week that he will not be coming in person for the G20 summit that India is hosting in early September. In fact, Putin has not been leaving Russia since the war with Ukraine began in February 2022. He has made some rare and exceptional trips to Belarus and other former Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries like Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. He also made one rare trip to Tehran. Putin will instead send his foreign minister Sergey Lavrov to Delhi.
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To add to that, Reuters reported on Thursday that Chinese President Xi Jinping is also unlikely to travel to New Delhi for the G20 summit. Xi has been beset by a series of economic woes back home including a slowing economy, fewer jobs for the young Chinese, and a full-blown real estate crisis with major developers being affected. It is not clear who China will send as a fill-in for Xi.
The decision of the leaders of Russia and China to skip the G20 summit hosted by India underscores the intricate global dynamics that are at play. Since the Ukraine war began there has been a growing divide between Western and non-Western powers. This move not only symbolises the geopolitical tug of war between these two sides but also highlights how major players like Russia and China are strategically manoeuvring to challenge the dominance of Western-centric forums. Moscow also put out a statement on Thursday, railing against the West for using forums like the G7 and G20 to rant propaganda against Russia and China. So, while the decisions have come separately, India still cannot rule out some degree of Sino-Russian jugalbandi at play.
Historically, the Western powers, particularly the United States and its allies, have played a pivotal role in shaping the agenda and decisions of the G20 as a forum. In fact, the very first G20 meeting happened in Berlin in 1999 as a response to the Asian financial crisis. However, it shot into the global limelight after the financial crisis of 2008. The G20 got elevated from the level of a talk shop for finance ministers and central bank governors to the premier platform for the most powerful political leaders of the world. However, Russia and China’s leaders’ decision to opt out of the summit in India underscores their intent to challenge this traditional Western-aligned paradigm.
The alliance between Russia and China has strengthened in recent years, characterised by a shared vision of countering Western influence and promoting multipolarity. By coordinating their moves to avoid legitimising Western-dominated forums like the G20, Russia and China are signalling their discontent with the current global power structure. They seek to break away from the Western narrative and create alternative avenues for dialogue and decision-making that are more inclusive and representative of their interests.
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This presents a predicament for countries like India that strive to maintain a neutral stance in the global arena. As the host of the G20 summit, India finds itself caught between aligning with Western powers and protecting its own interests. This dilemma exemplifies the broader challenge faced by many countries attempting to balance their diplomatic engagements without taking sides in the evolving great power competition between Washington and Beijing.
Russia and China’s emphasis on their own forums, such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and the BRICS grouping that also has Brazil, India, and South Africa, demonstrates their concerted efforts to bolster alternatives to Western-dominated platforms. These initiatives aim to provide a space for emerging economies to deliberate on key issues without being subject to the dominance of Western ideologies or priorities. The recent expansion of BRICS to include countries from Africa and the Arab world was a signal to the United States that it is not the sole arbiter of power dynamics in some of the less fancied parts of the world.
By leveraging forums like the SCO and BRICS, Russia and China are effectively drawing the lines for future conflicts as well. The Ukraine war has tempered the West on how swiftly it can bring about results. Even after a year and a half, and billions of dollars of Western military help, Ukraine has not been able to push back Russia. In fact, it has lost about 20 per cent of its territory and is unlikely to regain those parts in the foreseeable future.
This also has implications for a future conflict in Taiwan. China has been closely following the Russia-Ukraine war to see how far the West can be pushed. If Russia manages to hold on, which it currently seems to be doing well, it will bolster Xi Jinping’s aim to militarily attack Taiwan. Even though the US says it’s bound to defend Taiwan, there are no guarantees, given what has happened in Ukraine.
Hence, at this year’s G20 summit, India as the host country would be keen on ironing out some of these differences. But given how Russia and China have responded, it is likely that the faultlines that first got exposed in Bali will only be further exacerbated in Delhi. Not the other way around.
