BJP faces anti-incumbency in Madhya Pradesh and the party hopes that keeping the CM face as a guess could counter this
Madhya Pradesh is a vast and diverse state, and can be a mixed bag for the main players – the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Congress. With 45% Other Backward Class (OBC) population, both the parties are wooing the community and the women population.
The state will go for a single-phase polling on November 17 while the counting of votes will be held on December 3 along with other poll-bound states.
News18 travelled to some of the key belts in the state to know about the poll issues and what matters to voters.
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MALWA-NIMAR BELT
It is often said that if you do well in Malwa-Nimar belt, you win the state. News18 caught up with two prominent faces from the region — Kailash Vijayvargiya (BJP’s candidate from Indore 1) and Jitu Patwari, the Congress candidate from Rau.
Vijayvargiya is part of the BJP’s experiment of fielding MPs as MLA candidates. Vijayvargiya is a strongman from Indore, but the Indore 1 seat he is contesting from has been a Congress stronghold. Sanjay Shukla, who shares a good equation with Vijayvargiya otherwise, has been winning from here. The BJP’s calculation is that when MPs contest, they make the contest high-profile and influence not just the seat, but also surrounding areas.
For example, BJP’s Prahlad Patel may be contesting from Narsinghpur, but he has spent a lot of time in Chhindwara close by, which has been Congress leader Kamal Nath’s stronghold.
Vijayvargiya told News18: “I never wanted to contest, but when the party told me to, I decided to go ahead. I am like Hanuman… I am Hanuman bhakt, so I will do my best for the party.” The BJP is banking on the fact that this area has a large number of first-time voters and has pockets of urban areas, which the BJP believes is its stronghold.
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GUNA-GWALIOR BELT
The most interesting fight would of course be in the Guna-Gwalior belt. This area gave the 22 MLAs, who became the swing factor in 2018. It is these MLAs who left with Jyotiraditya Scindia, leading to the collapse of the 15-month-old Nath government. While Scindia himself has not been asked to contest from here, he has the pressure to recreate the magic of 2018. The pressure is as much from the BJP as from the Congress.
“It shows the culture and mentality of the Congress… they are trying to teach me a lesson. The people of MP will teach them a lesson,” he said.
The fact is that many BJP workers are a little wary. They are upset that Scindia has come from the Congress and is being given importance. But this belt is critical for the BJP as in 2018, the Congress had won 26 of the 34 seats. This is also where Raghogarh, which is Digvijaya Singh’s area, falls. The enmity between the two Maharajas is legendary and will colour the flavour of the area.
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THE CM FACE BATTLE
The real battle seems to be on the CM face. While Shivraj Singh Chauhan told News18 that he doesn’t care whether he becomes the CM or not, he hopes the Ladli Behna Yojana, which is his strong point, will bail him out. It is clear to the party workers by now that he is not being projected as the CM face.
The BJP faces anti-incumbency and they calculate that keeping the CM face as a guess, could counter this. In fact, there are two points on which the BJP is fighting here.
One is the ‘MP ke Man Mein Modi’ or Modi factor in the state. PM Modi will increase his campaign aggressively. Second, the hoardings show not just Chauhan, but all other high-profile leaders such as Narendra Singh Tomar, Vijayvargiya, Prahlad Patel, Kavita Patidar, among others. They cover almost all castes.
In the Congress, it is pretty clear that in case the party wins, Kamal Nath will be the CM. But the Digvijaya Singh factor cannot be undermined. Behind the banter between the two, there is an unsaid acceptance. Singh’s experience as a CM and his solid connect with the administration and party cadre will always give him an edge over Nath who is seen by many as a Delhi leader.
But the Congress hopes that the two can join hands to ensure that this time if they win, the government doesn’t fall. There is no Scindia this time. And the Congress has to ensure that it wins by a huge margin.
