Citing the latest opinion polls, Antique Stock Broking Ltd noted that BJP will lose ground with Congress winning legislative assembly elections in four out of the five states.
The NDA alliance is likely to lose some ground in the upcoming state elections, says Antique Stock Broking Ltd, after reviewing the latest opinion polls. But, said the broker, this preference for the opposition may not survive till the Lok Sabha elections.
“As per the latest opinion polls, the BJP seems to be losing some ground (primarily due to a series of populist schemes announced by the Congress). Our analysis of past elections suggests that assembly elections are not a good barometer of the Lok Sabha election,” said the report prepared by analysts Pankaj Chhaochharia, Dhirendra Tiwari and Abhimanyu Godara.
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Considering the trend in recent legislative assembly elections in Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh where BJP has suffered severe blows, the analysts pointed out that there is a significant shift in the voter sentiments towards Congress, fuelled by factors such as “anti-incumbency, poll freebies, the Bharat Jodo Yatra, and high inflation.”
These factors, said the analysts, will impact the upcoming legislative elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Telangana which will go to polls this month.
As per the opinion polls, Congress will come into power in four out of five states: Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Telangana.
However, the broker sees a good chance of the BJP coming to power in Rajasthan with a majority of 127-137 out of 200 in Rajasthan.
According to the opinion polls reviewed by the broker, BJP will have a difficult time holding onto power in Madhya Pradesh.
However, even if the state elections results don’t favor BJP, this may not necessarily affect the party’s hold over the center, stressed the analysts.
“Our empirical analysis suggests that the state election verdict is not a good barometer of the
national elections as seen in 1999 and 2019..,” the report read.
This divergence, say the analysts, is mainly due to factors such as “differing voter preferences and leadership popularity at the state and national level” and 6 month time after state elections is “sufficient time to sway political preferences..”
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Left Turn Ahead?
The analysts warned that, shocked by the results of the state elections, BJP may jump into action ahead of the Lok Sabha polls, expected by April or May.
“The ruling party at centre may announce a series of populist measures in the upcoming Union Budget (may impact fiscal deficit, already elevated at 5.9% of GDP in FY24BE) given the current environment of populism and possible loss at state elections.,” the report noted.
The report from Antique Stock Broking also points out that the opposition front INDIA is not likely to pose a major challenge to the ruling NDA alliance “as they lack clear agenda and synergies do not work due to difference in ideologies.”
At the same time the report says that the alliance may gain two Rajya Sabha seats with BJP losing four, bringing its majority down.
“Our analysis based on opinion polls and actual results, suggest that the BJP may lose four
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Rajya Sabha seats, while the India alliance may gain two by 2024, possibly bringing down
NDA’s strength in the Rajya Sabha is 106 seats,” read the report.
Speaking further on the trends in the legislative elections, the analysts note that high inflation and unemployment would be key factors that the voters will take into account. High inflation will induce an anti-incumbent sentiment among voters which could benefit BJP in Rajasthan but backfire in Madhya Pradesh.
However, the report also says that the recent measures by the BJP government to bring inflation under control in Madhya Pradesh “may allay earlier concerns of high prices” among voters. The Congress has also attempted a similar strategy in Rajasthan by introducing an “unemployment guarantee scheme”, which could work in the favor of the party.
“Chhattisgarh has performed well in terms of both these parameters (likely helping sway
consumer sentiment in INC’s favor),” noted the report by analysts.
Antique Stock Broking’s analysis also suggests that key constituencies of voters for the upcoming state elections include women, the youth, OBCs, and the rural population. The report noted that major political parties are attempting tailor made schemes and policies to attract these key vote bases.
On these lines, the Congress Party has introduced multiple populist schemes along with a promise to conduct the much needed caste census at the national level. BJP, on the other hand, came up with the bill to reserve a third of the seats in the Lok Sabha and state assemblies for women. In an attempt to lure the farmer population, BJP has recently announced a raise in the minimum support price for Rabi.
In addition to this, “infrastructure development and strong social media presence of the BJP” will also work well for the party, say analysts.
