New Delhi: India Meteorological Department, the nation’s official forecaster, today said that India will get normal monsoon this year. In a press conference, IMD Director General of Meteorology, Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra predicted normal to below normal rainfall in some areas of north west India and some parts of west central India and some pockets of north east India.
El Nino conditions are likely to develop during the monsoon season and its impact may be seen during the second half of the season,” Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said.
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Earlier, private forecasting agency Skymet Weather said that India is likely to experience below-normal monsoon rainfall this year, with a 20 per cent chance of drought due to the end of La Nina conditions and the potential for El Nino to take hold.
After four consecutive years of normal and above-normal rains during the monsoon season, this forecast comes as a concern for the agricultural sector, which heavily relies on monsoon rains for crop production.
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Skymet expects the monsoon rainfall to be around 94 per cent of the long-period average (LPA) of 868.6 mm for the four-month period from June to September.
The private forecaster also predicted that the northern and central parts of the country may see a rain deficit, with Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra expected to witness inadequate rains during the core monsoon months of July and August.
Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, the agricultural bowl of north India, are likely to observe less-than-normal rains during the second half of the season.
In a statement, Skymet said: “20 per cent chance of drought (seasonal rainfall that is less than 90 per cent of LPA).”
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It said there is no chance of excess rain (seasonal rainfall more than 110 per cent of the LPA), a 15-per cent chance of above normal rain (between 105 per cent and 110 per cent), 25-per cent chance of normal rain (between 96 per cent and 104 per cent) and 40 per cent chance of below normal precipitation.
